Epidemy Calculation

deutsch Kalkulation einer Seuche

Original Draft

Kalkulation einer Seuche

Data

2020-05-27

Bestätigte Infektionen: 5.618.829; Aktuell Infizierte: 2.956.279; Tote: 351.146; Genesene Patienten: 2.311.404
Stand: 27.05.2020, 16:00

2020-07-24

Bestätigte Infektionen: 15.446.800; Aktuell Infizierte: 6.050.826; Tote: 632.178; Genesene Patienten: 8.763.796
Stand: 24.07.2020, 7:00

p größe der population in individuen

r wachstums rate der infizierten pro tag

R wachstums rate der infizierten pro jahr

m anteil der infizierten, die durch die seuche sterben, mortalität

g durchschnittliche dauer zwischen infektion und genesung mit immunisierung in tagen

oder

s summe aller infizierten

n neu infektionen

t tote

g genesene mit immunisierung

Course of Illness

date of infection

death rate

average dying duration

recovering rate

average recovering duration

relapse rate

average duration from recovery until next relapse

Growths

Growths of

• infected
• dead
• recovered
• immune
• relapsed

Equilibrum

Equilibrum and Climaxes of infected and died.

Rise and Decline of the Disease

Example Corona Virus Desease 2019 COVID 19 Pandemy

Outbreak 1. December 2019

Growth Model

growing number of immunized after recovery leads to decreasing number of vulnerables to infection

growing number of infected and decreasing number of vulnerables leads to a maximum of ill and suffering people in the intersection of both curves

Distribution Model

Infectiousness Modell

Who ever makes individuals responsible for further infectiions risks to make too severe constraints to human and civil rights and freedoms by hindering all human contacts too strictly.

Such constraints may endanger the whole societies and economies and lead to big social, inter social and economic damages.

Every quarantine can turn out into injust and cruel internment or even imprisonment.

If never the less necessary all quarantined should be able to satisfy all human needs mutually inside their internment communities.